What trends can we expect in the coming years?
Of course, there will be a life after COVID-19. However, this does not automatically mean that the world will return to the pr-COVID-19 period way of living. There is general consensus among experts and virologists that there will be more of these types of pandemics in the future. Nature is full of viruses likeSars-COVID-19, so the question is not if it will happen again, but when.
At this moment (autumn 2020), the current pandemic is still quite active in the world. Some regions are now experiencing a second outbreak. The main question is when the current COVID-19 virus will be completely under control (contained or vaccines available). All nations will do their utmost to be better prepared to handle similar challenges in the future. Like any human topic, there are three ways to respond to these: attack, hide or defend.
Protectionism
Some countries will hide and develop an even more protectionist behavior than shown in the past. However, the virus does not stop at the borders and completely keeping outa virus is unlikely to succeed. Moreover, keeping the border hermetically closed will have a negative effect on the economy of the country involved and affect the export of dairy in exporting countries (including The Netherlands).
Backward integration
Some other countries will want to become less dependent on imports, especially for life’s essentials like food. Therefore, backward integration in the agricultural sector, including dairy, is likely to accelerate in countries such as China.
Own feed provision and production
Giant farms with 100% feed supply dependency will need contingency plans for the near future. This will result in more grass-fed systems or direct partnerships with arable farmers.
Locally produced food
Consumers showing a preference for locally produced food already was a trend. Although this was mainly driven by environmental issues in the first place, the COVID-19 crisis is expected to give locally produced food a boost.
Dual suppliership
More companies will draw up policies to make sure they have security and contingency plans for supply in place in case of disasters. Dual suppliership for vital food, ingredients, materials, additives, etc. across several continents is likely to be developed and to become more pronounced. Assessment of the vital functions of society and food availability by governments will be required. Less dependency on imports will probably be a priority in the future.
Online shopping
It is expected that many people who shifted to online shopping will keep making use of these services. This will undoubtedly have an effect on the traditional food shops.
All this will be accelerated by low oil prices and, consequently, loss of income for some countries as well as reduced tourism. Imagine Bali without tourism or the forbidden city in Beijing, Amsterdam, the Taj Mahal, but also small villages like Giethoorn in The Netherlands. Inhabitants of Venice were complaining of being flooded with tourists, but without them, the majority of the people has no income and the city will lose its soul without the visitors.
About a year from now, we will be able to come up with more learnings...
We would like to thank the following partners of SDDDC for their contributions to the realization of this booklet.
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